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A two-speed Europe

9 June 2021

The theme of a “two-speed Europe” is now ten years old. It was born in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis on the observation that the countries of the South had more difficulty to recover. The climax was reached in 2012 with the euro crisis. The extent of the divergence between “central” and “peripheral” […]

Public money: origin and transmission

31 May 2021

REMINDER OF ECONOMIC AGGREGATES The management of the sanitary crisis has led to an unprecedented deployment of public money. We will see what are the transmission channels between monetary authorities, governments and private economic agents. Before starting, it seems necessary to recontextualize the amounts at stake. To hear that the public debt in France exceeds […]

The dividends in Europe: 15 years for nothing

21 May 2021

Many economists are worried about Europe. With an adverse demographic trend and a lack of leadership in the technological field, Europe seems doomed to a tragic fate of economic stagnation and public debt. The most pessimistic speak of the Japanification of the economy in the sense that Japan already has these two unenviable characteristics. The […]

What’s wrong with the earnings season

17 May 2021

THE GAME FOR LISTED COMPANIES: EXCEED EXPECTATIONS AT THE EARNINGS SEASON Investor relations officers of listed companies have long understood the value of positively surprising investors when earnings are released. By creating a positive shock to expectations, the stock price is likely to react positively. So, the game is no longer to publish good results, […]

The French trade deficit

7 May 2021

The last few months have shown no improvement. The trade deficit remains at a historically high level. It is in the  order of 5 billion euros per month (60 billion per year) and the energy bill accounts for only 1/3 of this deficit. There are about 128,000 French companies exporting goods and services. The analysis […]

The corporate tax rate should increase in the US

5 May 2021

In 2017 Trump made a nice gift to companies by lowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Corporates weren’t specifically asking for it, but Trump was convinced that such a tax cut would encourage companies to spend more on investment and wages. It is difficult to conclude today on the effectiveness of this […]

Emerging markets’ growth : where are the profits ?

29 April 2021

THE GDP PROFIT SHARE IS NOT STABLE Emerging countries are appreciated by asset allocators, especially in Europe. The reason is very simple: economic growth is stronger there than elsewhere. This idea that higher economic performance will translate into stronger performance of equity indices is widely accepted. It also legitimates the so-called top-down approach, which consists […]

Tesla against the rest of the world

28 April 2021

Tesla published its results last night. The company had already communicated previously about the number of deliveries in the first quarter of 2021: 184,800 vs. 180,600 in Q4 2020 and 88,500 in Q1 2020. Like every quarter, the results are inflated by the sale of carbon credits. Without these and without the capital gain on […]

The end of a conundrum

12 April 2021

THE BOND-EQUITY DIVERGENCE WAS A CONUNDRUM Before the emergence of the sanitary crisis, the divergence of views between the equity market and the bond market was intriguing. It was 2019 and the deflationary risk was significantly priced in by the bond market while the equity market behaved as if nominal growth would be optimal for […]

Marigny Capital - actualités - Le secteur d’utilité publique face au COVID-19

Utilities and Covid-19

11 March 2021

The utilities sector is generally regarded as a safe haven during crises. This is due to the facts that its activity is recognised as essential to a country’s ability to function and that energy demand cannot fall to nothing. That being said, the utilities sector is worth another look in light of current risks of weaker demand, unpaid bills and falling prices.

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